AGP Executive Report

Colombia Election Integrity: Presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella urged prosecutors to investigate alleged rebel coercion in May 31 voting, citing unusually high vote shares in municipalities with armed groups ahead of the June 21 runoff. Costa Rica Macroeconomy: The IMF delivered another positive review but warned against complacency, stressing pending reforms despite stability and foreign investment. Venezuela Inflation & FX: Venezuela reported May inflation at 6.3% and its lowest month-to-month figure since Oct 2024, while the official vs parallel exchange-rate gap still persists. Venezuela Oil Recovery: U.S. diplomats say Venezuelan crude exports have hit about 1.25 million bpd, the highest in seven years—framing it as progress amid shifting geopolitics. Cuba–U.S. Tensions: Cuba’s top envoy called new U.S. sanctions on leaders a “pretext” for military intervention, warning of “war without bombs.” Argentina Retail Demand: Global luxury and fashion brands are expanding in Argentina as mall operators add capacity, betting on loosening import rules despite softer consumer goods sales. Automotive Supply Chains: Magna said it could assemble Chinese vehicles in Canada only on a long-term basis, signaling deeper China-linked manufacturing partnerships. Sports Meets Business: World Cup tourism and spending are already driving demand for flexible stays, with Airbnb highlighting Latino group travel patterns.

Colombia Runoff Politics: The first week of campaigning for Colombia’s June 21 presidential runoff is sharpening the divide: Abelardo de la Espriella has consolidated right-wing support after leading the first round, while the left behind Iván Cepeda and President Gustavo Petro struggles to coordinate. World Cup Business & Community: Canada’s fast-growing Latin American population is turning World Cup fever into local commerce, with community hubs like a Mexican barber shop in Vancouver drawing fans near major venues. Brazil Poultry Exports: Brazil’s chicken exports hit a record in May, with monthly revenue topping $1bn for the first time as shipments rose to 509,900 tonnes. Mexico World Cup Security: Mexico’s president says the World Cup opening can be peaceful despite protests, as teachers’ union action threatens disruption unless salary and pension demands are met. Infrastructure & Trade: Vinci Construction is expanding in Latin America by acquiring Grupo TDM’s geosynthetics division in Peru, while AD Ports launched trial operations at Noatum Ports’ Safaga terminal in Egypt. Energy Transition Watch: Market research forecasts the global electrolyzer market could reach $34.4bn by 2032, reflecting accelerating green hydrogen investment.

Agri-Food & Trade: Brazil’s fertilizer bill is rising fast as Hormuz-linked supply shocks push prices higher, squeezing farmers’ margins and forcing cutbacks ahead of the September planting window. Logistics & Shipping: Global container volumes stayed resilient in April (up 4% y/y) even as the Hormuz disruption lifted rates, with trade rerouting rather than collapsing. Aviation: Airlines are heading into IATA talks in Rio with profits at risk as fuel volatility and aircraft delivery delays force carriers to keep older planes longer. Energy & Industry: Mexico’s CFE awarded 37 renewable projects (7,411 MW) in its first mixed investment tender, with solar dominating. Venezuela Trade: Venezuelan coffee, tea and spices led non-oil exports to the U.S. in Q1 2026, totaling $19.52m. Finance & Payments: Stablecoins are increasingly used for salaries, remittances and savings in emerging markets, with Binance data showing heavy stablecoin allocation among users. Security & Risk: A New World screwworm outbreak has reached Texas, raising alarms for cattle health and cross-border biosecurity. Real Estate: Henderson Park bought a major Caribbean resort—Hyatt Regency Grand Reserve in Puerto Rico—via a JV with Pyramid Global Hospitality.

Pentagon-Backed Propaganda: A newly uncovered SOCSOUTH-linked Spanish-English site is reportedly using sloppy AI-written posts and country-specific versions to push pro-U.S. military messaging across Latin America, raising alarms about misinformation and manipulation. Energy & Trade: Adani Ports (APSEZ) won a 10-year marine services contract for Argentina’s first LNG export project to India, with a consortium set to run tugboats and offshore logistics backed by an estimated $70m investment. Aviation Outlook: IATA warns the “new normal” in air travel won’t fully reverse after the Iran war, with Middle East carriers still absorbing major revenue losses as jet fuel costs and route disruptions persist. Caribbean Fuel Crisis: Cuba’s fuel shortage is leaving iconic almendrones idle, with drivers stuck in a reservation app queue as the U.S. energy blockade deepens scarcity. Culture & Media: Netflix is leaning into World Cup 2026 with new soccer specials and a timed mobile game, betting on tournament hype to drive engagement. Environment & Society: Paraguay’s Itaipu Preserva project is restoring the Atlantic Forest corridor, planting millions of native trees to rebuild habitat across 3,000 hectares.

Agribusiness Expansion: Netafim (Israel) opened its biggest precision-irrigation manufacturing plant in Hermosillo, Mexico, aiming to supply North and Central America and create about 200 jobs, boosting local suppliers. Aviation Profit Pressure: IATA warned airline profits could be cut roughly in half in 2026 as Middle East conflict and higher jet-fuel costs squeeze margins, with SAF still covering under 1% of fuel needs. Energy & Markets: Brazil plans its first yuan “panda bond” issuance during a June China visit to diversify funding away from dollars. Regional Trade Tensions: Canada’s farmers are pushing back on a Mercosur deal over beef market-access concerns, even as negotiations continue. Humanitarian Aid: Cuba received 1,700 tons of basic goods from Mexico and Belize amid worsening shortages. Geopolitics: Venezuela says it has “well-founded doubts” about the ICJ process over the Esequibo dispute with Guyana and rejects recognizing any ruling. Politics: Peru’s presidential runoff is set to test Latin America’s rightward shift, with crime driving the contest.

Illegal Fishing Pressure on Argentina: A new FULASP report says foreign fleets along Argentina’s Mile 201 EEZ can take up to 4x the catch of the country’s own industry, with extraction rising sharply since 2019 and Chinese effort up 85%. Trade Diplomacy: Argentina has filed to join the CPTPP, aiming to link up with the UK for the first time since 1982, though accession could take years. AI Governance Debate: A policy warning argues AI standards are being set by a small group of wealthy powers, sidelining Global South priorities like ethics, cybersecurity, privacy, and access. Health & Agriculture Risk: The U.S. detected New World screwworm larvae in Texas, a livestock threat moving north from Mexico since 2023. Pharma Supply Watch: Goldman Sachs says semaglutide generic pricing after 2031/32 will hinge on peptide API manufacturing capacity, with China leading synthetic supply. Caribbean Business & Tourism: Venezuela is pitching tourism investment to Eurasia in St. Petersburg, while Royal Caribbean highlights local partnerships in the Bahamas. Trade Uncertainty: The U.S., Mexico and Canada are set to miss the July 1 USMCA review deadline, extending uncertainty for tariffs and supply chains.

Corporate Restructuring: Brazil’s Raízen secured creditor backing to move ahead with an out-of-court restructuring of about 65 billion reais ($12.6B), with debt holders able to take new instruments or convert part of claims into equity. Aviation & Trade: IATA is expanding cargo services across Latin America, launching CASS Domestic in Mexico, adding CASS Export in Paraguay, and planning Brazil rollout, as regional air cargo volumes keep growing. Energy Diplomacy: India and Venezuela are deepening energy cooperation, with Indian firms signaling interest in expanding in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector amid renewed crude purchases. Macro Watch: Colombia’s inflation accelerated again in May to 5.84% year-on-year, driven largely by housing and utilities costs. Markets & Tech: PayPal’s PYUSD supply shrank 31% from its March peak to about $2.92B as crypto liquidity cooled, even as PayPal scales access across more markets. Food & Climate Risk: Colombia braces for El Niño with 80% likelihood, raising the odds of heat, water stress, and pressure on food and energy production.

World Cup Business Pulse: Mexico, Canada and the U.S. kick off Group-stage storylines in the first four groups, while Brazil opens Group C and Portugal faces “unfinished business” in Group K—fueling tourism, retail and sponsorship spend across North America. Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez toured Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery and met Indian leaders, with India signaling readiness to deepen its presence as crude trade and long-term energy partnership talks intensify. Colombia–Cuba Aid: Colombia sent about 100 tons of humanitarian goods from Cartagena to Cuba, including medicines and solar panels, tied to hurricane damage and energy needs. Colombia Justice: Colombia’s Supreme Court upheld a 28-year sentence for Santiago Uribe, linking him to paramilitary financing and homicide. Brazil–U.S. Security Fallout: Brazil’s federal police chief criticized the U.S. terrorist designation of gangs PCC and CV, warning it could spill into tourism, investment and financial stability. Caribbean Tourism & Finance: Afreximbank launched a Jamaica roadshow to expand trade and industrial financing, while Caribbean leaders marked World Environment Day with a focus on resilience and renewable energy.

US-Terror Label Fallout: Brazil warned the new U.S. terrorist designations for gangs like CV and PCC could spill into tourism, investment and finance, while the Trump administration expands similar labels across the region. USMCA Uncertainty: The U.S., Mexico and Canada are set to miss a July 1 renewal milestone, raising the odds of prolonged talks and fresh tariff/rules friction—anxiety that has farmers in Iowa pushing for renewal. Trade Tension With Brazil: Lula vowed to diversify as new U.S. tariff proposals target a range of Brazilian exports, including disputes tied to Pix and forced-labor claims. Venezuela Energy Pivot: India and Venezuela moved to deepen long-term energy cooperation as Venezuela revises oil contract terms to attract investors, with Indian firms signaling readiness to expand. Caribbean Climate Finance: St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ PM met the Green Climate Fund to boost access to climate money, focusing on water security, sustainable tourism and the Blue Economy. Aviation & Logistics: IATA expands cargo services in Mexico and Paraguay, including CASS rollouts and real-time billing via FlexiPay. Tourism & Culture: Venezuela’s tourism delegation trained in China; Antigua and Barbuda named Charmaine Spencer CMO as arrivals rose; Mexico City’s food culture keeps drawing visitors. Business Notes: rhode enters Mexico directly; Shake Shack faced a rib supply shock after a truckload was stolen in Mexico.

Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met India’s PM Narendra Modi and Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri in New Delhi, with both sides stressing a “perfect complementarity” for long-term oil and gas cooperation and follow-up visits by Indian technical teams. Colombia–U.S. Election Clash: Colombia’s outgoing President Gustavo Petro hit back at Donald Trump after Trump endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, accusing Washington of backing “narco-traffickers” tied to Colombia’s hard-right politics. Argentina–UK Falklands Escalation: Argentina warned it could “fully exercise all” actions over Britain’s Rockhopper/Navitas Sea Lion oil plans, calling them unlawful and “clandestine” under Argentine rules. Industrial AI Deal: Siemens teamed with HighByte to expand its Industrial Edge ecosystem, aiming to connect factory data for AI use and bridge OT/IT in manufacturing. Caribbean Finance Boost: The Caribbean Development Bank advanced a Canada-backed first-loss guarantee expected to unlock up to US$400M in extra development lending for climate resilience and infrastructure. Mexico Public Safety: Mexicali saw animal cruelty citations jump from 27 (2021) to 628 (2025), with 369 sanctions already issued in early 2026 as citizens report more cases. Brazil Sustainability Trade: China agreed to buy 50,000 tonnes of deforestation-free Brazilian beef by end-2027, betting on traceability and forest-friendly credentials.

Mexico Border & Aviation Rules: Mexico’s updated central flight entry procedures now require a full digital “Vo.Bo.” approval package, tightening how operators coordinate with authorities and potentially slowing cross-border air plans. World Cup Travel Friction: The 2026 tournament’s US-heavy schedule collides with visa waiver gaps for many Latin American fans, with the FIFA PASS visa pathway still producing fewer than 20,000 appointments. Venezuela-India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s New Delhi visit with Jaishankar and Modi spotlights energy security, trade, investment, and healthcare/automobiles as Venezuela seeks a supply reset amid global disruptions. Crypto Payments in LatAm: Bybit and Western Union integrated USDPT stablecoin access via fiat channels, aiming to speed compliant cross-border transfers for Latin American users. Colombia Polling Law Setback: Colombia’s Constitutional Court struck down key parts of the new survey law, including timing limits and microdata requirements. Venezuela Mining Risk: Despite opening mineral reserves to private investment, gang control over mines threatens project timelines and security. Colombia Social Policy: A new time-use survey finds 9 in 10 Colombian women do unpaid care work daily, averaging 7h35m—highlighting a major drag on labor and economic independence.

Cuba Tourism Shock: Spain’s Melia will stop operating 15 hotels in Cuba, citing mounting geopolitical, legal and economic pressures; the move follows other foreign exits and comes as many properties sit idle due to power shortages and weaker visitor demand. Colombia Election Trust Crisis: Colombia’s vote-count dispute has escalated into a wider fight over the integrity of the digital systems behind elections, with fraud claims and scrutiny of institutions and private contractors. Argentina Gender Violence Push: Thousands marched nationwide in Argentina for the 11th anniversary of Ni Una Menos, demanding stronger state protection, faster justice, and better enforcement for victims facing both violence and economic coercion. Venezuela-India Energy Talks: Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodriguez met India’s PM Modi, with both sides focusing on energy security, trade and investment, healthcare and renewables. US Tariff Pressure on Brazil: The US is moving to rebuild a forced-labor tariff wall, with proposed 10% levies targeting multiple economies including Brazil and Mexico, raising new compliance and trade risks. Health & Biosecurity: USDA confirmed a new world screwworm case in Texas and activated quarantines and surveillance, aiming to protect livestock and limit market disruption. Global Air Travel Cost Shock: Airline leaders meeting in Rio will weigh how the Iran war is driving higher jet-fuel costs, route disruptions and delivery delays.

US Tariffs vs. Brazil: The U.S. plans 25% duties on many Brazilian imports after a Section 301 probe, citing issues from Pix e-payments to IP and deforestation; Brazil’s Lula says the country won’t “sit around complaining” and will seek new partners. Brazil Economy Watch: IBGE data show industrial production rose 0.7% in April and is up 4.4% year-to-date vs. the period, with gains led by extractives and petroleum/biofuels while chemicals fell. Trade Politics Escalate: Lula also accused Bolsonaro family figures of lobbying Washington, as the tariff threat and U.S. moves against gangs PCC and CV add pressure to Brazil’s business climate. Food & Commodities: China’s beef traders begin buying Brazil “Beef on Track” certified, deforestation-free beef; meanwhile coffee prices dip as forecasts point to a record Brazil crop. Venezuela Energy Moves: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez starts a five-day India visit focused on deeper oil ties, while Venezuela orders airlines and shipping firms to route fuel payments to a U.S. Treasury account. Colombia Election Backing: Trump endorsed presidential runoff front-runner Abelardo de la Espriella, signaling tighter U.S.-Colombia alignment if the conservative wins.

Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. proposes new forced-labor import duties, including 12.5% extra tariffs on 54 countries such as India, Brazil and China, after a USTR probe says partners failed to enforce bans. Energy & Diplomacy: Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez will visit India June 3–7 for talks with PM Modi spanning energy, trade, investment and renewables. Telecom & Infrastructure: Arelion expands its conflict-free channel program in Mexico to serve wholesale and enterprise customers with connectivity and DDoS mitigation. Logistics & Ports (Brazil): Macquarie and IG4 agree to sell controlling stake in Brazil’s CLI agri-bulk port terminal operator to AD Ports for $835m, aiming to build new Brazil–UAE trade routes. Tourism (Mexico/Caribbean): Baja California launches a new, sustainability-led tourism strategy; Aruba reports stay-over arrivals up 9.6% through April. Politics & Culture (Colombia): Colombia’s yellow national soccer jersey is being used in the presidential campaign, fueling a dispute over whether it’s being politicized. Security & Crime (Mexico/US): U.S. authorities say a hidden US–Mexico tunnel was used to move over $45m in cocaine, leading to four arrests. Labor (Colombia): Ecopetrol’s largest union starts a 24-hour strike over labor negotiations.

U.S.-Brazil Trade Clash: The U.S. Trade Representative proposes a 25% tariff on Brazilian imports under a Section 301 probe, with comments due July 1 and a July 6 hearing as talks continue toward a July 15 deadline. Criminal Compliance Shock: The U.S. designates Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist groups, raising new legal and asset-blocking risks for any firms doing business with them. Argentina Trade Push: Argentina moves to formally join the CPTPP, aiming to open new markets for its private sector. Peru Security Costs: Ahead of Peru’s presidential runoff, extortion and killings are surging, hitting small businesses and shaping voter fears. Venezuela Telecom & Conservation: CANTV restores fixed services to over 1,000 subscribers in Guárico, while Venezuela participates in protected-areas talks in China tied to the 30x30 goal. Caribbean Finance & Tourism: The Caribbean Development Bank meeting in The Bahamas spotlights resilience and debt, while the Dominican Republic ramps up tourism visibility at UNESCO and competes in Wave Awards.

Trade Tensions: The Trump administration proposed a 25% punitive tariff on many Brazilian imports under Section 301, targeting areas like digital trade, electronic payments, preferential tariffs, IP protection, ethanol access, and illegal deforestation—while carving out some goods including beef, coffee, rare earths/other metals, and aircraft parts. AI Funding: Alphabet plans to raise up to $80bn via equity sales to fund AI compute infrastructure, including a $10bn sale to Berkshire Hathaway—another sign of the capex-heavy AI race. Colombia Politics: Far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia’s first round and will face Senator Iván Cepeda in a June 21 runoff, setting up a high-stakes choice over security and social policy. Brazil Economy/Industry: Brazil’s auto market shows resilience with Mexico and Brazil diverging in April sales trends, while broader compliance pressure is rising for foreign firms, with Mexico and Brazil flagged as especially complex jurisdictions. Cybersecurity: Kaspersky reports NFC-based Android attacks surged 188% in early 2026, with Latin America among affected regions. Health & Business: C2N Diagnostics and SouthGenetics expand Alzheimer’s amyloid blood testing access across Latin America and the Caribbean.