AGP Executive Report

Caribbean Security Push: Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand announced $35M for Caribbean security, with most funding aimed at Haiti’s gang crisis—supporting Haiti’s national police, regional anti-drug policing, and a drug-trafficking task force. Cuba Under Pressure: The U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on Cuban state firms tied to GAESA, a military-run conglomerate said to control about 40% of GDP, raising fears for foreign investment and worsening the island’s economic squeeze. Bolivia Roadblocks Cleared: Bolivia’s government says army deployment has removed protest roadblocks after weeks of unrest tied to the country’s worst economic crisis in decades. Peru Election Fight: Peru’s runoff remains contested as candidate Roberto Sánchez says he won’t accept results if overseas ballots are counted, alleging consulates mishandled tally-sheet processing. Colombia’s Rightward Turn: Coverage highlights the narrow win of Trump-backed far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella, with legal challenges expected and major foreign leaders moving to congratulate the incoming president. Crime and Markets: A study says Colombia’s cocaine economy hit about $16.5B in 2024, overtaking petroleum exports and underscoring how illicit trade is reshaping the country’s economic balance.

Colombia’s Rightward Turn: Abelardo de la Espriella, a Trump-backed political newcomer, edged Iván Cepeda by under 1% in a razor-thin runoff, promising tougher security and pro-market moves—though the result is still contested and Congress is expected to be split. Food Security & Climate Risk: El Niño is strengthening and could become one of the strongest on record, raising flood/drought odds and hunger risks; WFP says the forecast gives vulnerable countries a chance to prepare. M&A in Consumer Finance: FirstCash agreed to buy UK pawn retailer Ramsdens in a £206m deal, offering a 35% premium and pushing Ramsdens off London’s AIM. Latin America Tech & Retail: Sea and OpenAI expanded Shopee’s ChatGPT integration into Brazil and multiple Southeast markets, aiming to shift shopping from keyword search to conversational discovery. Energy & Trade: The US approved its first floating LNG export terminal, a $5bn project that could reshape how LNG is financed and built—relevant for Latin America’s gas supply outlook. Regional Governance & Trade: A new pact seeks to curb illegal fishing by sharing vessel information and harmonizing rules across participating countries.

Colombia’s Political Turn: Trump-endorsed outsider Abelardo de la Espriella appears to have won Colombia’s presidential election in a razor-thin race, promising tough-on-crime policies like canceling peace talks and building “mega prisons,” while rival Iván Cepeda challenges the result. Regional Shift Watch: The win adds to a broader rightward swing across Latin America, with Peru’s conservative Keiko Fujimori also projected to win a tight runoff, reshaping how voters prioritize security, rule of law, and economic opportunity. Cuba’s Economic Pivot: Cuba’s National Assembly approved sweeping economic measures that critics say amount to a capitalist restoration, signaling major changes for the island’s planned economy. Connected TV Growth in Mexico: V and Grupo Multimedios partnered to expand connected TV advertising inventory and reach across Mexico, betting on the growing shift to streaming on the big screen. AI Infrastructure Push (Mexico): Bleeding Edge says its QRO1 campus in Querétaro is now fully operational as an “AI Factory,” aiming to deploy production-grade AI compute faster than traditional data center timelines. Aviation & Tourism (Caribbean): Caribbean Airlines will launch daily Toronto–Georgetown non-stop flights from July 2026, while Curaçao formalized its civil aviation authority to improve oversight and unlock better route prospects.

Colombia Politics: Trump-backed outsider Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won Colombia’s presidential runoff over Iván Cepeda, with preliminary results around 49.7% to 48.7%, but both sides are already challenging the count—raising near-term uncertainty for investors and security policy. Regional Shift: Rightist leaders across the Americas quickly congratulated De la Espriella, framing the win as part of a broader turn toward tougher crime-and-drugs stances in Latin America. AI & Infrastructure: Vertical Data partnered with Ascenty to make it easier for regulated industries across Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Colombia to deploy GPU-heavy AI workloads via data-center infrastructure. Energy Transition (Chile): SANY shipped core equipment for its first wind project in Chile, a 18 MW Purranque site, as Chile targets 70% renewables by 2030. Renewables (Colombia): NOVVA Group agreed to acquire a 37.8 MWac advanced-stage solar portfolio from ABO Energy, targeting early-2028 operations. Bolivia Crisis: Bolivia’s state of emergency continues after protests and road blockades disrupted fuel, food and essentials, with travel advisories in play. Business & Talent: A business school leader says more Latin American students are choosing Spain (Madrid/Barcelona) over the U.S. amid political uncertainty.

Colombia Runoff: Colombians vote Sunday in a high-stakes presidential runoff between leftist Sen. Iván Cepeda and Trump-endorsed right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella, with security fears and the future of Petro’s “total peace” at the center of the campaign. Bolivia Crisis: Bolivia’s President Rodrigo Paz has declared a state of emergency and launched a military crackdown on left-wing protesters after weeks of blockades that choked supplies and hit the economy hard. Peru Security Push: Peru’s Fuerza Popular is advancing “mano dura” style security legislation, including changes that could shift how cases against police and military are handled, as the country debates tougher crime and border enforcement under a potential Fujimori-led agenda. Energy Transition Lesson from Uruguay: Uruguay’s renewables-driven power transformation—now supplying up to 98% of electricity from wind, solar, hydro and biomass—gets renewed attention as regional energy security concerns grow. AI & Business Culture: A new study finds people increasingly avoid writing that “sounds like AI,” while another report highlights how cheaper open-weight AI models are gaining ground across Latin America and beyond.

Colombia Runoff: Colombians vote Sunday in a high-stakes presidential second round between Trump-backed far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist senator Iván Cepeda, with security fears, bomb attacks, and a murder of a leading conservative candidate shaping the campaign. Peace vs. Crackdown: De la Espriella vows to abandon Petro’s “total peace” and push a 90-day airstrike push against coca-linked armed groups, while Cepeda argues for continuing dialogue with armed groups. Election Day Logistics: Polls run 8:00 a.m.–4:00 p.m. local time; voting abroad began June 15 for more than 1.4 million Colombians. Fraud Watch: Both campaigns are deploying poll watchers to monitor procedures at individual tables. Aviation Expansion (Brazil): Nigeria’s Air Peace gets ANAC approval to fly to São Paulo, aiming to cut West Africa–Brazil travel time to about seven hours and expand routes to Toronto, New York, and China. Climate & Business Risk: A new “Super El Niño” outlook is raising concerns for agriculture, power demand, inflation, and market volatility across regions. World Cup Climate Debate: FIFA chief Gianni Infantino’s frequent private-jet travel is drawing fresh criticism from environmentalists. Venezuela Health Access: Venezuela says WHO vaccine and medicine channels remain blocked despite having foreign currency, blaming U.S. sanctions. Bolivia Economy Disruption: Bolivia declares a state of emergency as protests paralyze the economy and road blockades choke supplies. Wildlife Enforcement (Argentina): Authorities in Entre Ríos investigate alleged irregularities in sport hunting, including questions over the origin and documentation of captive animals.

Bolivia Crisis Escalates: President Rodrigo Paz declared a nationwide state of emergency after more than six weeks of road blockades choked fuel, food and medical supplies, with protests tied to austerity and subsidy cuts; the move expands military powers to clear routes, but some unions stayed out of a deal with the main trade federation. Brazil Energy Transition: Petrobras approved a $1.2B renewable fuels unit at its Cubatão refinery to produce sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel, targeting 15,000 barrels per day as airlines face tighter decarbonization pressure. LatAm M&A Watch: A new look at the region’s deal cycle finds fewer Latin America transactions but higher average deal sizes, with investors favoring select opportunities as 2026 activity picks up. Crypto & Illicit Finance: Chainalysis says Brazil received about $318B in crypto on-chain value over the past year, highlighting both rapid adoption and growing laundering/sanctions-evasion risks. Paraguay Tech Push: Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister inspected a “sovereign AI” data center site in Paraguay, banking on green power and aiming to spur jobs and local tech capacity. Colombia Election: Colombians vote in a presidential runoff that pits left-wing Ivan Cepeda against far-right Abelardo de la Espriella, framed as a choice between social reform and a harder security path.

Bolivia Crisis Escalates: President Rodrigo Paz declared a state of emergency after 50 days of anti-government road blockades choked food, fuel, and medicine supplies, authorizing wider military deployment to clear routes while requiring Congress notification within 24 hours. Labor Deal Aftermath: Paz’s emergency move came hours after a Friday agreement with the main union, the Bolivian Workers’ Confederation (COB), aimed at easing tensions—though shortages and price pressure kept protests growing. Argentina-Crypto Policy: Argentina’s Milei signed Order 475/2026 cutting the “cheque tax” burden for registered crypto exchanges, a bid to level costs versus traditional banks and boost market access. Aviation Connectivity: Guyana and Peru signed an MoU to negotiate a full air services agreement, aiming to expand passenger and cargo links. Agribusiness Innovation: BASF launched Adapzo Active, a new fungicide with a distinct mode of action code, targeting soybean rust risk in South America. Sports-Business Spotlight: Brazil’s 3-0 win over Haiti at the World Cup kept momentum high for the Selecao as regional football attention feeds tourism and sponsorship interest.

Diplomacy Under Strain: U.S. diplomats have quit or been fired from the Organization of American States amid clashes with a Trump-appointed ambassador, raising concerns about lost institutional know-how at the region’s key multilateral forum. Venezuela Dialogue: Venezuela’s National Assembly chief Jorge Rodríguez launched a new U.S.-linked dialogue with opposition lawmaker Dinorah Figuera, aiming for a roadmap with milestones and timelines. Security & Intelligence: Satellite imagery suggests Cuba expanded a listening site near Bejucal, with analysts linking the upgrades to China—another flashpoint in U.S.-Cuba relations. Climate Finance: Jamaica won a US$2.1m Green Climate Fund readiness grant to strengthen its climate-finance pipeline and resilience after Hurricane Melissa. Colombia Runoff: Colombia heads to a polarized presidential runoff Sunday between conservative Abelardo de la Espriella and progressive Iván Cepeda, with security, fiscal stress, and coalition-building front and center. Energy & Investment: Repsol is seeking to expand in Venezuela, targeting new oilfield deals including Horcon as it looks to ramp output. Sports Meets Business: Unilever’s Rexona boosted World Cup marketing spend in Brazil by 10% as it ramps activations tied to the tournament.

Energy & Trade Shock: A new analysis warns the US-Iran escalation is turning into a prolonged disruption across energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial markets, with global growth risks stretching into 2027. Brazil–US Tensions: Lula told Trump not to meddle in Brazil’s October election as Washington escalates pressure over judicial actions and tariffs. Colombia Politics: Colombia’s runoff is framed as a choice between a Trump-aligned far-right “El Tigre” and a more centrist-left path, with crime and fiscal reality both looming. Amazon Land Conflict: A report highlights how agribusiness expansion in Brazil’s Amazon is driving land disputes and lethal violence against Indigenous and traditional communities. Tech & Payments: Banco de México moves to simplify digital payments and raise deposit limits for small businesses, while stablecoin rails and fintech funding keep expanding. Climate Risk: The WMO says El Niño is likely to develop soon, raising odds of extreme weather across vulnerable regions. Business Outlook: Colombia slipped five spots in the IMD competitiveness ranking to 59th, underscoring pressure on investment and productivity.

Colombia Runoff Politics: Trump threw his weight behind far-right Abelardo de la Espriella (“El Tigre”) ahead of the June 21 runoff, warning a leftist win could hurt US ties—while the campaign frames the vote as a referendum on security and Petro’s legacy. Brazil-US Tensions: Lula warned Trump not to “meddle” in Brazil’s elections as Washington escalates pressure over judicial actions and tariffs. Cuba Economic Overhaul: Cuba’s Communist Party approved an emergency package with free-market style steps—decentralizing the state economy, boosting municipal autonomy, and cutting ministries. Peru Energy Investment: UAE climate fund Alterra and I Squared backed Peru’s Inkia Energy, targeting renewables growth that could supply about a quarter of the country’s power. Cybersecurity: MexicoMafia/PanchoVilla-linked “Operation Escaneo” shows a shift toward more sophisticated attacks on Latin American critical infrastructure. Stablecoin Rails: Trace Finance raised $32M Series A to expand regulated cross-border stablecoin infrastructure, with Brazil as a key corridor. Medical Tourism Boost: Sky High Dominicana and Plaza de la Salud teamed up to streamline specialized care for international patients. World Cup Tech Risk: FIFA faced a serious Microsoft Entra access-control flaw that could have disrupted global World Cup streams. Energy Shock Watch: Analysts warn the US-Iran escalation could keep hitting oil, shipping, fertilizer, food and finance through 2027.

Geopolitics & Energy: G7 leaders backed a US-Iran interim peace deal aimed at stabilizing the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn the broader energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial shock could linger through 2027. Global Governance: China released a white paper calling for a more just global governance system and bigger Global South representation, including reforms to the IMF and World Bank. Climate Risk for LatAm: FAO and WFP launched a joint anticipatory appeal seeking $202m to protect about 8.8m people across 22 high-risk countries, with El Niño threats spanning parts of Latin America and the Caribbean. Payments & Banking: Banco de México issued new rules to simplify digital payments and raise deposit limits for small businesses. Nearshoring Tech: Persistent Systems marked 10 years in Mexico, expanding nearshore cloud modernization and AI-enabled delivery for clients across North and Latin America. Aviation Connectivity: Arajet launched a new nonstop Rosario–Punta Cana route, adding more direct links between Argentina and the Dominican Republic. Business Finance: Perla Global Capital Advisors announced a transition to a direct lender and equity investor model. Markets Watch: LME will launch a steel HRC contract in October benchmarked to Shanghai Futures prices, boosting global access to “Shanghai” steel pricing.

Global Energy Shock at the G7: PM Modi warned that West Asia disruptions to fuel, fertiliser and food supply chains will keep hitting the Global South for “a considerable period,” urging new support mechanisms from global finance. US-Iran Deal Watch: G7 leaders backed Trump’s tentative Iran framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire, even as the text hasn’t been fully released and skepticism remains. Argentina Credit Boost: The World Bank approved a $2bn guarantee package to help Argentina meet foreign-currency debt needs and unlock about $4bn in private lending at lower rates. Venezuela Health & Pharma Ties: Venezuela’s health authorities met Brazil to align regulation and expand pharmaceutical production and commercialization in Venezuela. Mexico Security & Agriculture: Mexico confirmed a new New World screwworm case near the US border, while the USDA announced livestock aid and monitoring steps. Regional Crime Crackdown: Brazil police arrested 25 in a crackdown on Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang. Peru Election Tension: Peru’s runoff remains razor-thin as Fujimori edges Sánchez, with protests and claims of irregularities escalating. Travel Connectivity: Caribbean Airlines will launch daily Toronto–Georgetown flights in July, boosting business and diaspora travel links. Tech & Cyber: Nintendo disclosed a cyberattack tied to a ransom demand; customers were not believed affected. Health Supply Focus: Venezuela and Brazil are working on mechanisms to strengthen medicine supply chains.

US-Iran Framework: A draft US-Iran peace deal outlines a $300 billion private investment fund for Iran, with more than half already pledged, plus oil export waivers and steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—aimed at creating incentives for a final settlement. Argentina Finance: The World Bank will issue guarantees for up to $2 billion in commercial loans to help Argentina access capital markets as it faces large private debt payments. Latin America Politics & Security: An AP roundup says a right-wing backlash is gaining ground across the region, using tough-on-crime and anti-migrant messaging inspired by Bukele-style crackdowns. Colombia Diaspora Voting: Colombians abroad are casting ballots at embassies and consulates ahead of the June 21 runoff, keeping the election process active worldwide. Renewables in Brazil: Financing for renewable energy in Brazil reached BRL 36.3 billion in 2025, up 10.6% but still below 2022 peaks as high rates and curtailment weigh on new projects. Business Travel Tech: Despegar and Civitatis sign a global partnership to integrate Spanish/Portuguese tours into Despegar’s platform for millions of customers.

Brazil Security Crackdown: Brazilian police arrested 25 people in a coordinated operation against Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, alleging the gang supplies weapons to Brazil’s organized crime groups, with raids across five states. US-Iran Deal Watch: Reuters reports a US-Iran framework includes a $300B private investment fund for projects in energy, logistics, manufacturing and transport, with more than half already committed—while Israel says it was denied access to the memorandum. El Salvador Trade & Tourism Push: OECD data puts El Salvador at the top for export customs clearance (under three days), while tourism keeps accelerating—2.1M visitors in Jan–May, hitting 50% of the 2026 target and driving jobs and GDP share. Mercosur Trade Talks: Japan and Mercosur agreed to start negotiations for an Economic Partnership Agreement, aiming to expand autos, farm products and secure critical resources. Latin America Crime & Finance: Albania’s SPAK-linked operation targets an international cocaine network allegedly moving drugs from Latin America to Europe, with major seizures including shipments intercepted in Ecuador and Belgium. Energy Shock Context: An analysis warns the US-Iran conflict could keep disrupting global energy, shipping and food supply chains into 2027, weighing on growth. Business & Growth Signals: Polycab is eyeing global expansion after doubling its solar products business in India, while Verdant Rock received a BBB+ rating from Fitch for emerging-markets credit guarantees.

Energy & Food Shock: An analysis warns the US-Iran escalation is turning into a wider energy, shipping, fertilizer and financial drag that could weigh on global growth through 2027. Climate Risk: NOAA says El Niño is now underway and could be among the strongest on record, raising odds of extreme heat, floods, droughts and wildfires that can disrupt agriculture and food security. Venezuela Power Deal: Venezuela signed an agreement with General Electric to rebuild its failing electricity grid after years of underinvestment, as blackouts can last up to 10 hours daily. Air Travel & Routes: Iberia is studying a return to Montreal and flags Guadalajara next in Mexico, while LATAM is partnering with Meili to let passengers book car rentals directly in its app and earn LATAM Pass miles. Peru Politics: Keiko Fujimori narrowly won Peru’s presidency based on overseas votes, with the final count essentially settled. Tech & Finance: Binance made Fortune’s first Crypto 100 list, and Nuvei agreed to buy Payoneer for $2.75B in a push to expand payments reach. Business & Mobility: BYD’s April export data shows a strategy heavy on Central & South America, while the LATAM travel push and other deals point to continued growth in regional services.